Most of the 2025 NHL playoff field is pretty much known by now, with a little over three weeks remaining in the regular season schedule. While only the Washington Capitals have technically clinched a playoff berth, 10 other teams have de facto 100 percent odds in my 🏒 2024-25 NHL Elo forecast 📉 model, with three more checking in at over 90 percent.
If you’re keeping track at home, that means we have near-certainty about 14 of the 16 playoff spots up for grabs this season. That just leaves two spots up for grabs — one in the East, and one in the West — to be fought over by nine teams with between 3 percent and 48 percent playoff odds. (Note: As of Tuesday afternoon, March 25.) Let’s break down the playoff puzzle’s remaining pieces — and the key factors that could tip the race one way or another.
Eastern Conference
Near Locks: Ottawa Senators (95.7%), New Jersey Devils (92.4%)
The Montreal Canadiens are currently in the driver’s seat for the last wild-card spot in the East, as they have both more points (they’re in the position right now) and more remaining games than their competitors. They’re not the best team in the mix on paper — that would be the New York Rangers, who own the superior Elo rating and goal differential — but the Broadway Blueshirts have frittered away what was once a nearly 60 percent playoff probability in the span of a few weeks. The Habs, meanwhile, keep picking up points from overtime or shootouts; since Feb. 27, six of their 11 games have awarded an extra Bettman point, helping them gain ground even in losses.
The New York Islanders have been making a recent bid as well, though Monday’s 4-3 shootout loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets, in what felt like a must-win game for at least one (if not both) teams, hurt their chances by 6 percentage points in a single contest. Columbus has been an amazing story all year, the future schedule is favorable and that win snapped a 6-game skid — however, it still may not be enough to leapfrog these other teams in the standings. The best recent team of the bunch by Elo (with 7 rating points gained in the past 2 weeks) is the Detroit Red Wings, but they haven’t been harvesting points out of losses like Montreal, and Detroit also faces the league’s toughest remaining schedule by far according to Elo. All of that means a ninth straight year without the playoffs is likely for this once-proud franchise.
Circle the Calendars
Here are the remaining head-to-head games between teams in our East playoff mix, after the Blue Jackets beat the Islanders on March 24:
April 8: Detroit Red Wings at Montreal Canadiens
April 10: New York Rangers at New York Islanders
April 17: New York Islanders at Columbus Blue Jackets
Western Conference
Near Locks: Minnesota Wild (96.3%)
With the Minnesota Wild 4 points clear of the pack for the top wild card spot, it’s shaping up as a multi-team race for the very last playoff berth in the Western Conference as well. The St. Louis Blues have the edge on paper because they are the best team talent-wise, with the highest Elo rating and top goal differential of the bunch by far. (They’re basically the only above-average team in this mix right now, particularly after winning 8 of 10 games.) Behind them, the Calgary Flames have better odds than the Vancouver Canucks because the Flames have more games left to play, against an easier schedule — and it doesn’t hurt that they own the battle of the netminders, with Dustin Wolf vastly outplaying Thatcher Demko and Arturs Silovs this season.
But as disappointing as Vancouver has been in 2024-25, they did score a much-needed win over New Jersey in a shootout on Monday, and the Canucks do have the talent to be better than they look (even considering their injuries). With an easier schedule than St. Louis and a better roster than Calgary, they’re not out of this race yet. And finally, we have the Utah Hockey Club, a fun story when they had 47 percent playoff odds at midseason — less fun as they slid since then, but still a team hanging around at the periphery of the race. While the H.C. actually has the second-best goal differential of any team in this bunch, they’ve also been playing the worst recently and face the toughest remaining schedule.
Circle the Calendars:
The West is more settled in a head-to-head sense, with only two games remaining between teams on our list (and both involve Utah, the team with the lowest playoff odds by far):
April 1: Calgary Flames at Utah Hockey Club
April 15: Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues
Filed under: NHL
Neil’s Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
